The 2022 eruption at Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i, marked the first extrusive activity from the volcano after 38 years of quiescence. The eruption was preceded by several years of seismic unrest in the vicinity of the volcano’s summit. Characterizing the structure and dynamics of seismogenic features within Mauna Loa during this pre-eruptive interval may provide insights into how pre- and co-eruptive processes manifest seismically at the volcano. In particular, the extent to which seismicity may be used to forecast the location and timing of future eruptions is unclear. To address these questions, we construct a catalog of relocated seismicity on Mauna Loa spanning 2011-2023. Our earthquake locations image complex, sub-kilometer-scale seismogenic structures in the caldera and southwest rift zone. We additionally identify a set of streaks of seismicity in the volcano’s northwest flank that are radially oriented about the summit. Using a rate-and-state friction model for earthquake occurrences, we demonstrate that the seismicity rate in this region can be modeled as a function of the stressing history caused by magma accumulation beneath the summit. Finally, we observe a mid-2019 step change in the seismicity rate in the Ka‘oiki region that may have altered the stress state of the northeast rift zone in the three years before the eruption. Our observations provide a framework for interpreting future seismic unrest at Mauna Loa.

The 2022 eruption at Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i, marked the first extrusive activity from the volcano after 38 years of quiescence. The eruption was preceded by several years of seismic unrest in the vicinity of the volcano’s summit. Characterizing the structure and dynamics of seismogenic features within Mauna Loa during this pre-eruptive interval may provide insights into how pre- and co-eruptive processes manifest seismically at the volcano. In particular, the extent to which seismicity may be used to forecast the location and timing of future eruptions is unclear. To address these questions, we construct a catalog of relocated seismicity on Mauna Loa spanning 2011-2023. Our earthquake locations image complex, sub-kilometer-scale seismogenic structures in the caldera and southwest rift zone. We additionally identify a set of streaks of seismicity in the volcano’s northwest flank that are radially oriented about the summit. Using a rate-and-state friction model for earthquake occurrences, we demonstrate that the seismicity rate in this region can be modeled as a function of the stressing history caused by magma accumulation beneath the summit. Finally, we observe a mid-2019 step change in the seismicity rate in the Ka‘oiki region that may have altered the stress state of the northeast rift zone in the three years before the eruption. Our observations provide a framework for interpreting future seismic unrest at Mauna Loa.

Coseismic rotations of principal stress axes can provide insights into the strength of the crust, but it is unclear how common this phenomenon is. We use a nearest-neighbor clustering algorithm to identify earthquake sequences in the global ISC-GEM catalog and the regional Southern California catalog. Using an inner-product-based pairwise measure of moment tensor similarity, we demonstrate that, in both catalogs, aftershocks are less similar to their respective mainshocks than foreshocks are. We interpret this effect, which we call moment tensor scattering, as evidence for widespread coseismic stress rotations. Moment tensor scattering is observable for a broad range of mainshock magnitudes in both catalogs. We further demonstrate that mainshock-aftershock similarity recovers logarithmically to pre-mainshock levels on decadal timescales. We conclude that moment tensor scattering is a generally observable feature of seismic sequences which may be useful in future work to discriminate between models of crustal strength.