Abstract
Urbanization increases runoff, sediment, and nutrient loadings to
freshwaters, causing flooding, harmful algal blooms, and increased costs
for drinking water filtration. Most watershed models use runoff quality
data from specific land uses; coupled with a variety of methods for
quantifying loads, the most common being Build-up and Wash-off (BUWO)
equations for which loading is a function of antecedent dry period
(ADP). However, several studies have shown there is no significant
correlation between urban runoff quality and ADP, suggesting predictions
based solely on landuse and ADP are questionable. The objective of this
study is to discover which parameters, climatological or catchment
characteristics, are most significant and should be included in the BUWO
relationship. Stormwater quality data was obtained from the National
Stormwater Quality Database (NSQD), which is the largest and most recent
database of its type in the U.S. Bayesian Network Structure Learner
(BNSL) was used to assess the relationships between catchment
characteristics, climatological information, and runoff quality for each
land use. Given the optimal BN structure, it was determined which
parameters affect water quality event mean concentrations the most, and
which the least. The results demonstrated that for some constituents
(i.e. particulate nitrogen, particulate phosphorous, and sediments),
other factors (such as rainfall depth and duration, surface slope) exert
a more important influence on urban runoff quality than ADP.