Montane birds experience a range of challenges that may limit their breeding success, including nest predation and severe climactic conditions. The continuing effects of climate change are causing shifts in biotic and abiotic factors that may compound these threats to montane bird species. In northeastern montane forests, many bird species are shifting downslope, potentially as the result of increased precipitation and temperature at higher elevations. Although lower elevations might be more favorable in terms of climactic conditions, nest predation is higher at lower elevations. Thus, montane birds might be faced with the opposing pressures of adverse climactic conditions at higher elevations and increased predation at lower elevations. We monitored nests of Swainson’s thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevation gradient in the White Mountain National Forest in New Hampshire in 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2021 to examine the effect of biotic and abiotic factors on nest survival. We found a significant negative effect of rain intensity (millimeters per hour per day) on daily nest survival, suggesting that heavier rain per hour decreases Swainson’s thrush daily daily nest survival. Moreover, we found a negative interaction effect of elevation in conjunction with minimum daily temperature and average daily temperature, suggesting that at higher elevations, temperature, specifically on colder days, decreases Swainson’s thrush nest survival. Our results provide evidence for a potential mechanism of how climate change will affect nesting survival of montane breeding birds as heavier precipitation events become more frequent and intense, a likely outcome due to the changing climate within the White Mountains and other montane ecosystems, putting other passerine species at risk in this system.