Global climate change is significantly impacting dust emission patterns in arid regions, posing challenges to environmental quality and human health. However, the impacts of future climate change on dust emissions in China remain insufficiently understood. This study employed the Weather Research and Forecasting coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model to simulate future dust emissions in China under two climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585) for the years 2030, 2060, and 2090. Results indicated that in the near term (2030 and 2060), dust emissions were projected to be higher under the high-emission SSP585 scenario compared to the moderate-emission SSP245 scenario. This suggests that increased greenhouse gas concentrations and associated climatic changes may enhance conditions favorable for dust generation, such as elevated temperatures and reduced soil moisture. By 2090, however, this trend may reverse, with SSP245 exhibiting higher dust emissions than SSP585. This reversal highlights the complex, non-linear interactions between long-term climate variables and dust emission processes, potentially due to changes in precipitation patterns, atmospheric circulation, and vegetation cover. The spatial distribution of dust emissions consistently remains concentrated in northwestern China and southern Mongolia across all scenarios and time periods, emphasizing the persistent role of major dust source regions like the Taklamakan Desert and the Gobi Desert. These findings underscore the need for targeted mitigation and adaptation strategies to manage the environmental and health impacts associated with dust emissions in the context of climate change.

Dust aerosols play a crucial role in Earth’s biogeochemical processes by modulating solar radiation and affecting terrestrial ecosystem productivity. In China, extensive arid and semi-arid regions contribute to high dust aerosol emissions, yet the long-term impact of dust aerosols on gross primary productivity (GPP) remains insufficiently quantified. This study coupled the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) and the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) to quantify the impact of dust aerosol radiative forcing on GPP in China’s terrestrial ecosystems from 2000 to 2020. Results indicated that dust aerosols significantly alter surface solar radiation components by reducing direct radiation and enhancing diffuse radiation. The mean annual decrease in direct radiation due to dust aerosols was −8.2 ± 0.2 W m⁻², while the increase in diffuse radiation was 5.3 ± 0.1 W m⁻², leading to a net reduction in total surface solar radiation of around −2.9 W m⁻². These radiative changes resulted in an average annual increase in GPP of approximately 0.11 ± 0.024 Pg C yr⁻¹, accounting for around 2% of China’s mean annual GPP of 6.44 ± 0.18 Pg C yr⁻¹ during the study period. The enhancement was particularly pronounced in regions with high dust aerosol loads, such as northwest China, and exhibited notable interannual variability. This study underscores the complex interactions between dust aerosols and terrestrial ecosystems, highlighting the importance of considering aerosol radiative effects in carbon cycle assessments and climate models.