Abstract
Worldwide climate-driven shifts in the distribution of species is of
special concern when it involves habitat-forming species. In the coastal
environment, large Laminarian algae – kelps – form key coastal
ecosystems that support complex and diverse food webs. Among kelps,
Macrocystis pyrifera is the most widely distributed
habitat-forming species and provides essential ecosystem services. This
study aimed to establish the main drivers of future distributional
changes on a global scale and use them to predict future habitat
suitability with a focus on the southeastern Pacific coast. Using
species distribution models (SDM), we examined the changes in global
distribution of M. pyrifera under different emission scenarios.
To constrain the drivers of our simulations to the most important
factors controlling kelp forest distribution across spatial scales, we
explored a suite of environmental variables and validated the
predictions derived from the SDMs. Minimum sea surface temperature was
the most important variable explaining the global distribution of
suitable habitat for M. pyrifera. Under different climate change
scenarios, we always observed a decrease of suitable habitat at low
latitudes, while an increase was detected in other regions, mostly at
high latitudes. Along the southeast Pacific, we observed a range
contraction of 14.5◦ of latitude for 2100 under the
RCP 8.5 scenario, implying a loss of habitat suitability throughout the
coast of Peru and poleward to 27.83◦S in Chile. On the
northern coast of Chile, the area coinciding with the complete habitat
loss predicted by our model is under heavy exploitation with over 11,180
tons harvested every year from natural populations of M.
pyrifera. The loss of habitat suitability will likely have significant
impacts on marine biodiversity and ecosystem functioning and is a
harbinger of massive impacts in the socio-ecological systems of the
southeastern Pacific.