Abstract
Rising ocean temperatures are threatening marine species and populations
worldwide, and ectothermic taxa are particularly vulnerable to warming.
Echinoderms are an ecologically important phylum of marine ectotherms
and shifts in their population dynamics can have profound impacts on the
marine environment. The effects of warming on echinoderms are highly
variable across controlled laboratory-based studies. Accordingly,
synthesis of these studies will facilitate the better understanding of
broad patterns in responses of echinoderms to ocean warming. Herein, a
meta-analysis incorporating the results of 85 studies (710 individual
responses) is presented, exploring the effects of warming on various
performance predictors. The mean responses of echinoderms to all
magnitudes of warming were compared across multiple biological
responses, ontogenetic life stages, taxonomic classes, and regions,
facilitated by multivariate linear mixed effects models. Further models
were conducted which only incorporated responses to warming greater than
the projected end-of-century mean annual temperatures at the collection
sites. This meta-analysis provides evidence that ocean warming will
generally accelerate metabolic rate (+ 32%) and reduce survival (–
35%) in echinoderms, and echinoderms from sub-tropical (– 9%) and
tropical (– 8%) regions will be the most vulnerable. The relatively
high vulnerability of echinoderm larvae to warming (– 20%) indicates
that this life stage may be a significant developmental bottleneck in
the near-future, likely reducing successful recruitment into
populations. Furthermore, asteroids appear to be the class of
echinoderms that are most negatively affected by elevated temperature
(– 30%). When considering only responses to magnitudes of warming
representative of end-of-century climate change projections, the
negative impacts on asteroids, tropical species and juveniles were
exacerbated (– 51%, – 34%, and – 40% respectively). The results of
these analyses enable better predictions of how keystone and invasive
echinoderm species may perform in a warmer ocean, and the possible
consequences for populations, communities, and ecosystems.