Analysis of Prognostic Factors and Development of Nomogram Model for
Predicting the Prognosis of Children with Secondary Hemophagocytic
Lymphohistiocytosis
Abstract
Objective: To establish a prediction Nomogram based on
prognostic factors for children with hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis
(HLH). Methods: A retrospective analysis of pediatric HLH cases
diagnosed at the Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University between
January 2012 and December 2022 was conducted. Cox regression analysis
was used to identify prognostic factors for pediatric HLH patients. The
C-index, ROC curve, and AUC were used to evaluate the discrimination of
the model. The DCA was used to evaluate the clinical application value
of the model. Results: A total of 133 cases of secondary
pediatric HLH patients were included in this study, with 45 deaths and
88 survivors. Univariate analysis showed that age ≤ 2 years, PLT ≤ 50×10
9/L, HB ≤90 g/L, AST ≥ 200 U/L, CK-MB ≥ 50 U/L, LDH ≥
1000 U/L, SF ≥1500 μg/L, PT ≥ 20 s, APTT ≥ 40 s, hypoalbuminemia,
hypofibrinogenemia, mechanical ventilation, splenomegaly, ARDS,
respiratory failure,CNSL, shock, DIC, pulmonary hemorrhage, and
gastrointestinal bleeding are risk factors for the survival of those
secondary pediatric HLH patients ( P <0.05), while
blood purification therapy may be a protective factor for HLH prognosis
( P = 0.049). Multivariable Cox showed that CNSL (HR = 3.18,
95%CI = 1.72-5.89), PLT ≤ 50×10^9/L (HR = 2.16, 95%CI = 1.11-4.19),
hypoalbuminemia (HR=2.65, 95%CI=1.14-5.17), and hypofibrinogenemia (HR
= 2.48, 95%CI = 1.19-5.14) were independent risk factors for the
outcome of children with HLH, while the use of blood purification
therapy (HR = 0.32, 95%CI = 0.16-0.64) was an independent protective
factor. A Nomogram prediction model was constructed using R software,
and the ROC curve , C-index, and calibration curve showed good
discrimination and fit of the model. The DCA curve showed that the model
had good clinical applicability. Finally, based on the Nomogram score
and HR value, the subjects were divided into three groups, and it was
found that the mortality rate in the high-risk group was significantly
higher than that in the low-risk group. Conclusion: The
development of a Nomogram to predict the prognosis of secondary
pediatric HLH patients has good discrimination and accuracy and may have
good clinical application value.