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Analysis of Prognostic Factors and Development of Nomogram Model for Predicting the Prognosis of Children with Secondary Hemophagocytic Lymphohistiocytosis
  • +8
  • Zuochen Du,
  • Nandu Luo,
  • Pingping Zhang,
  • Guangli Yang,
  • Baoli Li,
  • Yanjiao Shen,
  • Xiaoqi Shi,
  • Xiuli Cao,
  • Jiaojiao Huang,
  • YAN CHEN,
  • Pei Huang
Zuochen Du
Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Nandu Luo
Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University
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Pingping Zhang
Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University
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Guangli Yang
Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University
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Baoli Li
Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University
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Yanjiao Shen
Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University
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Xiaoqi Shi
Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University
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Xiuli Cao
Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University
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Jiaojiao Huang
Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University
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YAN CHEN
Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University
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Pei Huang
Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University
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Abstract

Objective: To establish a prediction Nomogram based on prognostic factors for children with hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH). Methods: A retrospective analysis of pediatric HLH cases diagnosed at the Affiliated Hospital of Zunyi Medical University between January 2012 and December 2022 was conducted. Cox regression analysis was used to identify prognostic factors for pediatric HLH patients. The C-index, ROC curve, and AUC were used to evaluate the discrimination of the model. The DCA was used to evaluate the clinical application value of the model. Results: A total of 133 cases of secondary pediatric HLH patients were included in this study, with 45 deaths and 88 survivors. Univariate analysis showed that age ≤ 2 years, PLT ≤ 50×10 9/L, HB ≤90 g/L, AST ≥ 200 U/L, CK-MB ≥ 50 U/L, LDH ≥ 1000 U/L, SF ≥1500 μg/L, PT ≥ 20 s, APTT ≥ 40 s, hypoalbuminemia, hypofibrinogenemia, mechanical ventilation, splenomegaly, ARDS, respiratory failure,CNSL, shock, DIC, pulmonary hemorrhage, and gastrointestinal bleeding are risk factors for the survival of those secondary pediatric HLH patients ( P <0.05), while blood purification therapy may be a protective factor for HLH prognosis ( P = 0.049). Multivariable Cox showed that CNSL (HR = 3.18, 95%CI = 1.72-5.89), PLT ≤ 50×10^9/L (HR = 2.16, 95%CI = 1.11-4.19), hypoalbuminemia (HR=2.65, 95%CI=1.14-5.17), and hypofibrinogenemia (HR = 2.48, 95%CI = 1.19-5.14) were independent risk factors for the outcome of children with HLH, while the use of blood purification therapy (HR = 0.32, 95%CI = 0.16-0.64) was an independent protective factor. A Nomogram prediction model was constructed using R software, and the ROC curve , C-index, and calibration curve showed good discrimination and fit of the model. The DCA curve showed that the model had good clinical applicability. Finally, based on the Nomogram score and HR value, the subjects were divided into three groups, and it was found that the mortality rate in the high-risk group was significantly higher than that in the low-risk group. Conclusion: The development of a Nomogram to predict the prognosis of secondary pediatric HLH patients has good discrimination and accuracy and may have good clinical application value.