Objective: Exploring the evolving geographical distribution pattern of Tetracentron sinense and its main influencing factors since the last interglacial can provide a scientific foundation for the efficient conservation and administration of the species. Methods: The MaxEnt model was used to construct the potential distribution areas of T. sinense in different periods such as the last interglacial, the last glacial maximum, the Mid-Holocene, the current and future. On the premise of discussing the influence of dominant environmental factors on its distribution model, the suitable area changes of T. sinense under different ecological climate situations were quantitatively analyzed. Results: The AUC value predicted by the optimized model was 0.959, indicating a good predictive effect by the MaxEnt model; the potential suitable areas for T. sinense in the current are mainly located in southwest China, which are wider compared to the actual habitats. Jackknife testing showed that the lowest temperature in the coldest month, elevation, seasonal variation coefficient of temperature and surface calcium carbonate content are the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. sinense. From the last interglacial to the current, the total suitable area of T. sinense showed a decreasing trend; the distribution points of T. sinense populations in Mid-Holocene may be the origin of the postglacial population, and Southwest China may be its glacial biological refuge. Compared with the current, the total suitable area ranges of T. sinense in China in the future decreased, and the centroid location of its total fitness area all migrated to the northwest, with the largest migration distance in 2070s under the SSPs 7.0 climate scenario. Conclusion: Temperature was the most important factor affecting the distribution of T. sinense. With the global warming, its suitable area ranges will show a shrinking trend. Ex-situ conservation measures could be taken to preserve its germplasm resources.

The spatial pattern is critical for understanding the plant population status. The distribution patterns of endangered plants are more vulnerable to intraspecific, interspecific, and environmental factors. Tetracentron sinense Oliver, a tertiary relict plant, the spatial pattern, and its influencing factors are poorly understood. We sought to figure out the spatial pattern of T. sinense and the factors responsible for this pattern. We utilized the point pattern, ordinary kriging, and canonical correlation analysis to identify distribution patterns, spatial interactions, and environmental factors. The results revealed that T. sinense individuals were highly aggregated, at a small scale. Similarly, there was a positive correlation between young and adult trees at smaller scales. In addition, the dominant species showed a positive correlation with T. sinense; the correlation gradually became non-significant or negative as the scale increased. Furthermore, the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. sinense were air humidity, altitude, litter depth, and potassium content. These results highlighted the importance of intra- and interspecific interaction and environmental factors for the spatial distribution of T. sinense. Our results provide new insights into endangered species’ spatial patterns and main factors. Moreover, these findings have relevant implications for conserving and managing endangered trees in a constantly fragmented habitat.