Upward lightning (UL) has become a major threat to the growing number of wind turbines producing renewable electricity. It can be much more destructive than downward lightning due to the large charge transfer involved in the discharge process. Ground-truth lightning current measurements indicate that less than 50% of UL could be detected by lightning location systems (LLS). UL is expected to be the dominant lightning type during the cold season. However, current standards for assessing the risk of lightning at wind turbines mainly consider summer lightning, which is derived from LLS. This study assesses the risk of LLS-detectable and LLS-undetectable UL at wind turbines using direct UL measurements at instrumented towers. These are linked to meteorological data using random forests. The meteorological drivers for the absence/occurrence of UL are found from these models. In a second step, the results of the tower-trained models are extended to a larger study area (central and northern Germany). The tower-trained models for LLS-detectable lightning are independently verified at wind turbine sites in this area and found to reliably diagnose this type of UL. Risk maps based on cold season case study events show that high diagnosed probabilities in the study area coincide with actual UL events. This lends credibility to the application of the model to all UL types, increasing both risk and affected areas.

This study investigates lightning at tall objects and evaluates the risk of upward lightning (UL) over the eastern Alps and its surrounding areas. While uncommon, UL poses a threat, especially to wind turbines, as the long-duration current of UL can cause significant damage. Current risk assessment methods overlook the impact of meteorological conditions, potentially underestimating UL risks. Therefore, this study employs random forests, a machine learning technique, to analyze the relationship between UL measured at Gaisberg Tower (Austria) and 35 larger-scale meteorological variables. Of these, the larger-scale upward velocity, wind speed and direction at 10 meters and cloud physics variables contribute most information. The random forests predict the risk of UL across the study area at a 1 km^2 resolution. Strong near-surface winds combined with upward deflection by elevated terrain increase UL risk. The diurnal cycle of the UL risk as well as high-risk areas shift seasonally. They are concentrated north/northeast of the Alps in winter due to prevailing northerly winds, and expanding southward, impacting northern Italy in the transitional and summer months. The model performs best in winter, with the highest predicted UL risk coinciding with observed peaks in measured lightning at tall objects. The highest concentration is north of the Alps, where most wind turbines are located, leading to an increase in overall lightning activity. Comprehensive meteorological information is essential for UL risk assessment, as lightning densities are a poor indicator of lightning at tall objects.