Abstract
In this study, a new short-term wind power prediction model based on a
temporal convolutional network (TCN) and the Informer model is proposed
to solve the problem of low prediction accuracy caused by large wind
speed fluctuations in short-term prediction. First, an input feature
selection method based on the maximum information coefficient is
proposed after considering the problem of information interference
caused by excessively large input features. A dynamic time planning
method is used to select the optimal input step of historical power.
Then, the combined forecasting model composed of TCN and the Informer is
constructed in accordance with the numerical weather forecast and
historical power data. Lastly, the pinball loss function is used to
expand the prediction model into a quantile regression model, measure
the effect of volatility, quantify the volatility range of prediction,
and finally, obtain a deterministic prediction result. The actual
measured data of wind farms in the Bohai Sea area are selected for
analysis and calculation. Results show that the prediction model
proposed in this study achieves better accuracy in deterministic
prediction and interval prediction than the traditional model.