Greater sage-grouse face tradeoffs between predation risk and thermal
exposure in selecting habitat
Abstract
Climate change is likely to drive widespread species range shifts and
extirpations, mostly on the warm distribution edges, where habitat tends
to be fragmented, of lower quality, support lower population density,
and at greater risk from extreme weather events. In the Intermountain
West, future climate will likely be warmer and drier, driving a
reduction in sagebrush (Artemesia sp.) and other shrubland cover. Among
the species threatened by more xeric climate is the Greater sage-grouse
(Centrocercus urophasianus), which depends on sagebrush for forage and
shelter, though their response to temperature is not well studied. We
deployed 75 data loggers across two valleys in southern Utah and Nevada,
near the southern edge of sage-grouse distribution, and collected
temperature data for 27 months. We used random forest models to test the
impacts of temperature, land cover, and topography on sage-grouse
habitat selection and found that temperature influenced selection in all
seasons and both sites. In Utah, the warmer site, sage-grouse selected
areas near trees during the extremes of both winter and summer. In
autumn and spring those extremes were rarer and sage-grouse avoided
habitat near trees. Conversely, sage-grouse in the cooler Nevada site
selected contiguous patches of sagebrush in extremes periods but only
selected habitat near trees during winter cold, avoiding trees during
summer. Our findings show that extreme temperatures drive sage-grouse to
select habitat near trees despite the risk likely posed by avian
predators. The difference between the Utah and Nevada sites suggests
that sage-grouse prefer sagebrush as thermal shelter but that it may be
inadequate during the hottest times, forcing riskier selection. These
models point toward a more mechanistic understanding of how sage-grouse
distribution may retract at its warm edges. This will refine our
understanding of seasonal habitat requirements and inform management
decisions to prioritize thermal refugia for an imperiled species.