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Model-based Impact Analysis of Climate Change and Land-use Intensification on Trophic Networks
  • Christian Neumann,
  • Tuanjit Sritongchuay,
  • R. Seppelt
Christian Neumann
Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Tuanjit Sritongchuay
Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ
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R. Seppelt
Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ
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Abstract

Global change impacts the structure of communities within trophic food webs well before a decline in biodiversity can be measured for instance by species numbers. While land use change is the most important direct driver of terrestrial biodiversity loss, its impact in combination with climate change is less well understood. We investigate the combined effects of climate change (temperature, precipitation) and land-use intensification on terrestrial trophic networks, with a process-based general mechanistic ecosystem model (‘MadingleyR’) that simulates ecosystem dynamics for trait-based functional groups of species (i.e., ectothermic, and endothermic herbivores, carnivores, and omnivores) for different regions such as India and Europe. Resulting patterns are widely consistent across selected regions. The greatest effect of climate change and land use is observed for carnivores. Both, land use intensification and climate change, cause a substantial decrease in the biomass of different functional groups, while some functional groups (generalists, omnivores), partially benefit. Large endotherms are negatively affected by land use intensification, while ectotherms are under pressure from rising temperatures in a changing climate. Arid and tropical regions show a higher response to climate change, with losses of up to -3.4% and -1.9% in total biomass, while areas with low net primary productivity show the most negative response to land use intensification (up to -6.7% in total biomass). Our results suggest that land use intensification (a) has a significant impact on larger organisms and predators, leading to a major restructuring of global food webs, (b) Ectotherms are particularly vulnerable to rising temperatures, and (c) regions in tropical or arid climates experience significant changes in their community composition and will be threatened in their biodiversity.