Capacity for recovery in Bornean orangutan populations if forest
fragmentation and offtake is limited
Abstract
Forty years of deforestation and logging have degraded and fragmented
much of Borneo’s lowland forest. This poses a threat to the island’s
unique biodiversity, which can be exacerbated by hunting and killing.
Although orangutans sometimes persist in small forest patches, it is
unclear if such highly fragmented habitats can sustain viable
populations, and whether they facilitate movements across modified
landscapes over the long-term. Since longitudinal population data are
unavailable, inferences must be made from modelling. We applied a
spatially-explicit individual-based model to predict the potential
long-term viability of orangutan populations across Borneo.
Specifically, we examined how population dynamics and dispersal could be
affected by the loss of habitat fragments and removal of individuals
through hunting, retaliatory killings and capture and translocation.
Small forest fragments facilitated orangutan movement, increasing the
number of individuals settling in non-natal patches. However, large
rivers remained a substantial barrier, and limited the capacity of
orangutan populations to recover from decline. Orangutan populations
were also highly vulnerable to even small amounts of offtake, with
annual removal of >2% diminishing the positive role that
small fragments played in sustaining population connectivity and
long-term viability. Our results imply that orangutan populations could
grow and recover from recent declines across Borneo if further habitat
loss within human-modified landscapes is minimized. However, this will
only be achievable if efforts are made to reduce the removal of
orangutans by promoting coexistence with people, limiting killings, and
only engaging in translocations in rare cases where no suitable
alternative exists.