Abstract
Anthropogenic climate change is creating a more flammable future by
increasing the number of days when vegetation is dry enough to burn.
Indices representing the percent moisture content of dead fine fuels as
derived from meteorological data have been used to assess geographic
patterns and temporal trends in vegetation flammability. To date, this
approach has assumed a single flammability threshold, typically between
8 and 12%, controlling fire potential regardless of the vegetation type
or climate domain. Here we investigate geographic variation in fuel
moisture levels associated with observed fire activity among ecoregions
by analysing global reanalysis data and remotely sensed burnt area
products. This geospatial analysis identified a wide range of ecoregion
flammability thresholds (EFTs) associated with fire activity, often well
above or below the commonly used range of values. Many boreal and
temperate forests, for example, can burn with much higher fuel moisture
than previously identified; Mediterranean forests, on the other hand,
tend to burn with consistently low fuel moisture. Bayesian modelling
showed that EFTs are primarily driven by eco-climatological variables,
particularly precipitation and temperature. Our analysis also identified
complex associations between vegetation structure, fuel types, and
climatic conditions highlighting the complexity in
vegetation-climate-fire relationships globally. Our study provides a
critical, necessary step in understanding and describing global
pyrogeography and tracking changes in spatiotemporal fire activity.