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An Integrated View on the Uncertainties of Sea-Level Rise, Hazards and Impacts, and Adaptation
  • +15
  • Tim H.J. Hermans,
  • Renske C. De Winter,
  • Joep E. A. Storms,
  • Frances E. Dunn,
  • Renske Gelderloos,
  • Ferdinand Diermanse,
  • Toon Haer,
  • Dewi Le Bars,
  • Marjolijn Haasnoot,
  • Ymkje Huismans,
  • Loes M. Kreemers,
  • Eveline C. Van Der Linden,
  • Stuart G. Pearson,
  • Roelof Rietbroek,
  • Aimée B. A. Slangen,
  • Kathelijne M. Wijnberg,
  • Gundula Winter,
  • Roderik S. W. Van De Wal
Tim H.J. Hermans
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Renske C. De Winter
Deltares
Joep E. A. Storms
Department of Geosciences and Engineering, Delft University of Technology
Frances E. Dunn
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University
Renske Gelderloos
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology
Ferdinand Diermanse
Deltares
Toon Haer
Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
Dewi Le Bars
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Marjolijn Haasnoot
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Deltares
Ymkje Huismans
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Deltares
Loes M. Kreemers
Psychology for Sustainable Cities, Knowledge Centre Society and Law, Amsterdam University of Applied Science
Eveline C. Van Der Linden
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Stuart G. Pearson
Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology
Roelof Rietbroek
ITC faculty of Geo-information Science and Earth Observation, University of Twente
Aimée B. A. Slangen
Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
Kathelijne M. Wijnberg
Dept. of Civil Engineering & Management, University of Twente
Gundula Winter
Deltares
Roderik S. W. Van De Wal
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Utrecht University, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University

Abstract

While adapting to future sea-level rise and its hazards and impacts is an interdisciplinary challenge, the interaction between scientists studying different aspects of this challenge is limited. To stimulate collaboration and develop a common research agenda, a workshop held in June 2024 gathered 22 scientists and policymakers working in the Netherlands. Participants discussed the interacting uncertainties across three different disciplines: sea-level projections, hazards and impacts, and adaptation. Here, we present our view on the most important uncertainties in each discipline and the feasibility of managing and reducing those uncertainties. We find that enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration is urgently needed to prioritize uncertainty reductions, manage expectations, and increase the relevance of science to adaptation planning. Furthermore, we argue that in the coming decades, significant uncertainties will remain or newly arise in each discipline and rapidly accelerating sea-level rise will remain a possibility. Therefore, we recommend investigating the extent to which early warning systems can help policymakers to make timely decisions under these remaining uncertainties, in both the Netherlands and other coastal areas. Crucially, this will require an integrated view on sea-level rise, its hazards and impacts, and adaptation.