An Integrated View on the Uncertainties of Sea-Level Rise, Hazards and Impacts, and Adaptation
Abstract
While adapting to future sea-level rise and its hazards and impacts is an interdisciplinary challenge, the interaction between scientists studying different aspects of this challenge is limited. To stimulate collaboration and develop a common research agenda, a workshop held in June 2024 gathered 22 scientists and policymakers working in the Netherlands. Participants discussed the interacting uncertainties across three different disciplines: sea-level projections, hazards and impacts, and adaptation. Here, we present our view on the most important uncertainties in each discipline and the feasibility of managing and reducing those uncertainties. We find that enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration is urgently needed to prioritize uncertainty reductions, manage expectations, and increase the relevance of science to adaptation planning. Furthermore, we argue that in the coming decades, significant uncertainties will remain or newly arise in each discipline and rapidly accelerating sea-level rise will remain a possibility. Therefore, we recommend investigating the extent to which early warning systems can help policymakers to make timely decisions under these remaining uncertainties, in both the Netherlands and other coastal areas. Crucially, this will require an integrated view on sea-level rise, its hazards and impacts, and adaptation.