Abstract
A slope at Barry Arm, in Alaska’s Prince William Sound, is deforming at
a varying rate up to tens of meters per year above a retreating glacier
and deep fjord that is a popular recreational destination. If the
estimated 500 million cubic meters of unstable material on this slope
were to fail catastrophically, the impact of the landslide with the
ocean would produce a tsunami that would not only endanger those in its
immediate vicinity, but likely also those in more distant areas such as
the port of Whittier, 50 km away. The discovery of this threat was
happenstance, and the response so far has been cobbled together from
over a dozen existing grants and programs. Remotely sensed imagery could
have revealed this hazard a decade ago, but nobody was looking,
highlighting our lack of coordination and preparedness for this growing
hazard driven by climate change. As glaciers retreat, they can
simultaneously destabilize mountain slopes and expose deep waters below,
creating the potential for destructive tsunamis. The settings where this
risk might occur are easily identified, but more difficult to assess and
monitor. Unlike for volcanoes, active faults, landslides, and tectonic
tsunamis, the US has conducted no systematic assessment of tsunamis
generated by subaerial landslides, nor has the US established methods
for monitoring or issuing warnings for such tsunamis. The U.S. National
Tsunami Warning Center relies on seismic signals and sea-level
measurements to issue warnings; however, landslides are more difficult
to detect than earthquakes, and the resultant tsunamis often would reach
vulnerable populations and infrastructure before water level gages could
help estimate the magnitude of the tsunami. Also, integrating precursory
motion and other clues of an impending slope failure into a tsunami
warning system has only been done outside the US (e.g Norway: Blikra et
al., 2012). Barry Arm is a dramatic case study highlighting these
challenges and may provide a model for mitigating the threat of tsunamis
generated by subaerial landslides enabled by glacial retreat elsewhere.