Abstract
The rapid growth of renewable generation, driven by increasing concerns
about climate change, sustainable energy sources, and energy
independence, has presented significant challenges for distribution
system operators (DSOs). Integrating intermittent sources while ensuring
grid stability and reliability demands a robust evaluation of hosting
capacity (HC) in power distribution networks. However, prevailing HC
analysis methodologies predominantly rely on conservative assumptions or
worst-case scenarios, often leading to impractical and unreliable
outcomes. Commercial tools, though offer readily available solutions for
hosting capacity analysis, suffer from limitations as they typically
assess HC of individual nodes independently or focus on only a few
distributed scenarios.
More elaborate methods have been proposed, attempting to cope with the
complexity and stochastic nature of the HC problem. However, no much
consideration has been given to their scalability to large distribution
systems.
In response to the complexity and stochastic nature of the HC problem,
this paper introduces an efficient methodology based on stochastic power
system simulations and statistical analysis. The proposed approach
undergoes comprehensive assessments to substantiate its efficacy, with a
key focus on validating its accuracy for reliable HC estimates.
Utilizing the bootstrap method, a resampling technique, multiple samples
are generated to mimic possible Distributed Energy Resources (DERs)
deployments, enabling estimation of confidence intervals for HC
metrics.
By applying statistical analysis to power system simulation results,
insights into the expected variability and uncertainty of the problem
are gained. These insights guide the selection of the minimum number of
DER deployment scenarios necessary to ensure an efficient and
well-informed HC assessment process.
The proposed methodology effectively addresses the challenges of HC
analysis, offering scalability to large distribution networks. Its
efficiency and enhanced accuracy make it a valuable tool for DSOs in
facilitating the integration of renewable generation in a dependable and
practical manner.