This work presents a cointegration-based pair-trading strategy for identifying stock pairs with substantial cointegration in their prices across four years (January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021). After the Cointegrated pairs are determined, pair-trading portfolios are created, and portfolio performance is tracked during a one-year test period (January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2021). Suitable trigger points are determined utilizing a very powerful spread detection system, allowing both stocks’ short and long positions to be precisely recognized. The yearly return of a portfolio is used to assess its performance. First, twelve sectors of stocks from the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India are selected. According to the NSE’s monthly report for the month of December 31, 2022, the top ten stocks in terms of their free-float market capitalization from the twelve sectors are selected. Pair trading portfolios are built using pairs from each sector that demonstrated cointegration of close prices from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021. The portfolios are evaluated based on their return from January 1, 2022, to December 31, 2022. Furthermore, clustering-based techniques were used to identify stocks that behaved similarly for the period of four years i.e., January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021. This was performed by using three clustering techniques and the best technique, based on their respective results, was chosen to identify the clusters to verify the cointegrated pairs. Henceforth, the pairs which were common in both cointegration, and clustering techniques were regarded as the most recommended pairs for trading. The work makes three distinct contributions. First, the paper provides a cointegration-based pair trading strategy for stock portfolio creation, that can be used to earn profit by the investors in the stock market. Second, the pair-trading models are trained and tested on real-world stock market data, with the results displayed to illustrate the models’ efficacy. Finally, since the stocks utilized in the pair trading portfolio designs are drawn from various NSE sectors, the outcomes of the pairings are an excellent signal of the possible profit that investors could make if they invest in those sectors using the recommended pair-trading technique.

Predictive model design for accurately predicting future stock prices has always been considered an interesting and challenging research problem. The task becomes complex due to the volatile and stochastic nature of the stock prices in the real world which is affected by numerous controllable and uncontrollable variables. This paper presents an optimized predictive model built on long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) architecture for automatically extracting past stock prices from the web over a specified time interval and predicting their future prices for a specified forecast horizon, and forecasts the future stock prices. The model is deployed for making buy and sell transactions based on its predicted results for 70 important stocks from seven different sectors listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The profitability of each sector is derived based on the total profit yielded by the stocks in that sector over a period from Jan 1, 2010 to Aug 26, 2021. The sectors are compared based on their profitability values. The prediction accuracy of the model is also evaluated for each sector. The results indicate that the model is highly accurate in predicting future stock prices.

Prediction of stock prices using time series analysis is quite a difficult and challenging task since the stock prices usually depict random patterns of movement. However, the last decade has witnessed rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms for complex statistical analysis. These algorithms are capable of processing a large volume of time series data executing on high-performance hardware and parallel computing architecture. Thus computations which were seemingly impossible to perform a few years back are quite amenable to real-time time processing and effective analysis today. Stock market time series data are large in volume, and quite often need real-time processing and analysis. Thus it is quite natural that research community has focused on designing and developing robust predictive models for accurately forecasting stochastic nature of stock price movements. This work presents a time series decomposition-based approach for understanding the past behavior of the realty sector of India, and forecasting its behavior in future. While the forecasting models are built using the time series data of the realty sector for the period January 2010 till December 2015, the prediction is made for the time series index values for the months of the year 2016. A detailed comparative analysis of the methods are presented with respect to their forecasting accuracy and extensive results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the six proposed forecasting models.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. On one hand, we have proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis who claim that stock prices cannot be predicted, on the other hand, there are propositions illustrating that, if appropriately modeled, stock prices can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. There is also a gamut of literature on technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and profit from it. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using five deep learning-based regression models. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, over a period of December 29, 2014 to July 31, 2020. Based on the NIFTY data during December 29, 2014 to December 28, 2018, we build two regression models using convolutional neural networks (CNNs), and three regression models using long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) networks for predicting the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records for the period December 31, 2018 to July 31, 2020. We adopted a multi-step prediction technique with walk-forward validation. The parameters of the five deep learning models are optimized using the grid-search technique so that the validation losses of the models stabilize with an increasing number of epochs in the model training, and the training and validation accuracies converge. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all the proposed regression models. The results indicate that while both CNN and LSTM-based regression models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the CNN model that previous one week’s data as the input is the fastest in its execution. On the other hand, the encoder-decoder convolutional LSTM model uses the previous two weeks’ data as the input is found to be the most accurate in its forecasting results.

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. On one hand, we have proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis who claim that stock prices cannot be predicted, on the other hand, there are propositions illustrating that, if appropriately modelled, stock prices can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. There is also a gamut of literature on technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and profit from it. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach for stock price prediction using machine learning and deep learning-based methods. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, over a period of four years: 2015 – 2018. Based on the NIFTY data during 2015 – 2018, we build various predictive models using machine learning approaches, and then use those models to predict the “Close” value of NIFTY 50 for the year 2019, with a forecast horizon of one week, i.e., five days. For predicting the NIFTY index movement patterns, we use a number of classification methods, while for forecasting the actual “Close” values of NIFTY index, various regression models are built. We, then, augment our predictive power of the models by building a deep learning-based regression model using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) with a walk-forward validation. The CNN model is fine-tuned for its parameters so that the validation loss stabilizes with increasing number of iterations, and the training and validation accuracies converge. We exploit the power of CNN in forecasting the future NIFTY index values using three approaches which differ in number of variables used in forecasting, number of sub-models used in the overall models and, size of the input data for training the models. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for all classification and regression models. The results clearly indicate that CNN-based multivariate forecasting model is the most effective and accurate in predicting the movement of NIFTY index values with a weekly forecast horizon.