Evaluating the effectiveness of matching the timing of occurrences and
environmental data in ecological niche models: Insights for
low-dispersing species
Abstract
Ecological niche models, crucial for estimating species’ potential
distribution under global change, can face reduced accuracy when the
timing of occurrence data does not align with the environmental data.
One solution is to ensure a close temporal match between the environment
and the observation date. While this approach is typically recommended
for highly mobile species, a few findings support its use for species
with limited mobility, whose distributions may be responding to climate
change via local population changes. Additionally, it remains unclear
what specific temporal resolution could improve model performance. This
study assesses the effectiveness of temporal matching for a species with
low mobility, the Mexican small-eared shrew (Cryptotis mexicanus), by
evaluating different temporal resolutions (one-, five-, and ten-year
averaged environmental data) against the standard method (30-year).
Occurrences between 1971 and 2000 were used for model training and
cross-validation, while those outside this range were used for external
evaluation. Based on the omission rate of the external evaluation
occurrences, the approach that matched environmental data using the
prior ten-year resolution performed better than the standard 30-year
average approach, while the rest of evaluation metrics (for any temporal
resolution) were not different. Visual inspection indicated that the
geographic prediction resulting from a ten-year resolution was as
realistic as the one from the standard 30-year approach. In contrast,
the shorter temporal resolutions (one and five years) resulted in
unrealistic estimates. Therefore, matching the timing of occurrences and
environmental data for other species with low mobility may also improve
model performance and geographic predictions. Additionally, this
correlative approach identifies a potential time lag between climatic
changes and population responses in this species. Studies can select the
optimal temporal resolution by exploring several or using available
information about population responses to climate change.