Varied projected changes in near-future climatically suitable areas for
bats in South Asia
Abstract
Aim We assessed the projected changes in climatically suitable areas for
South Asian bats from current conditions (1970-2000) to the near future
(2041-2060) in response to climate change scenarios, identifying
hotspots of climatic suitability, and measuring the direction and
zero-cost distance between climatically suitable areas in the present
and the near future. Location South Asia Time period Present day and
near future (2050) Major taxa studied South Asian bats Methods We used
ensemble ecological niche modelling for 110 selected South Asian bat
species with four algorithms (random forests, artificial neural
networks, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and maximum entropy)
to define climatically suitable areas under current conditions
(1970–2000). We then predicted future (2041–2060) climatically
suitable areas under four projected scenarios (combining two global
climate models and two shared socioeconomic pathways, SSP2:
middle-of-the-road and SSP5: fossil-fuelled development). Results
Predicted future changes in climatic suitable areas varied across
species but the majority were predicted to retain most of the current
area or have small losses. When shifts occurred due to projected climate
change, new areas were generally at higher latitudes (northward shift).
Climatically suitable hotspots (suitable for >30% of
species) were generally predicted to become smaller and more fragmented.
Main conclusions Overall, climate change in the near future may not lead
to dramatic shifts in the distribution of bat species in South Asia, but
local hotspots of biodiversity may be lost. Our results offer insight
into climate change effects in less studied areas and can inform
conservation planning, motivating reappraisals of conservation
priorities and strategies for bats in South Asia.