Abstract
Climate change is already impacting ecosystem composition and species
distributions. A question remains as to how future climate change will
alter ecosystem structure. Here we study two distinctly different, but
equally valuable New Zealand fisheries (Tasman Bay and Golden Bay, and
Chatham Rise), and the potential impacts that climate change could
cause. We use mizer, a size-based multispecies modelling package, to
simulate a high number of interacting fish species in each ecosystem. By
utilising therMizer, an extension of mizer which incorporates
temperature effects on species’ metabolic rate and aerobic scope, we
implement historical climate data from the Fisheries and Marine
Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP). This enables us to
recreate the historical time period of 1961–2010, deriving reasonable
steady state with biomasses closely matching those observed in the past.
We then simulate forwards to 2060, allowing for temperature to remain
steady or to increase, and for fishing to occur, and look at the
resulting changes in species biomasses. It was found that while specific
species responses differ, both ecosystems generally decrease in
abundance under climate change. Chatham Rise is much more impacted by
fishing effects. Species with higher thermal tolerance ranges tended to
fare better under climate change. Issues raised during the incorporation
of temperature effects include knowledge of species’ thermal tolerances
and the importance of how the initial steady state is tuned, as this has
significant flow-on effects on species dynamics. This study will help
advance other ecosystem models aiming to account for future climate
change impacts.