Geographical distribution and diversity patterns of bird species are influenced by climate change. The Rouget’s rail (Rougetius rougetii) is a ground-dwelling endemic bird species distributed in Ethiopia and Eritrea. It is a near-threatened species menaced by habitat loss, one of the main causes of population declines for bird species. The increasing effects of climate change may further threaten the species’ survival. So far, the spatial distribution of this species is not fully documented. With this study, we develop current potential suitable habitat and predict the future habitat shift of R. rougetii based on environmental data such as bioclimatic variables, population density, vegetation cover, and elevation using ten algorithms. We evaluated the importance of environmental factors in shaping the bird’s distribution and how it shifts under climate change scenarios. We used 182 records of R. rougetii from Ethiopia and nine bioclimatic, population density, vegetation cover, and elevation variables to run the 10 model algorithms. Among 10 algorithms, eight were selected for ensembling models according to their predictive abilities. The current suitable habitats for R. rougetii were predicted to cover an area of about 82,000 km² despite being highly fragmented. The model suggested that temperature seasonality (bio4), elevation, and mean daily air temperatures of the driest quarter (bio9) contributed the most to delimiting suitable areas for this species. R. rougetii is sensitive to climate change associated with elevation, leading to a large, shrinking distribution of suitable areas. The projected spatial and temporal pattern of habitat loss of R. rougetii suggests the importance of climate change mitigation and implementing long-term conservation and management strategies for this threatened endemic bird species.

This study was carried out to investigate the species diversity and habitat use of birds in the Menagesha Suba State forest and surrounding farmland. The study was conducted from July 2018 to January 2019 during the wet and dry seasons. The study area was stratified based on the dominant habitat types. A standardized survey technique was employed using systematically established point counts for all habitat types. EstimateS software (version 9.1) and Chi-square test were applied to analyze the data. A total of 122 bird species belonging to 14 orders and 49 families were identified in the study area during the two-season surveys. There was a statistically significant difference in the relative abundance of species among habitat types (χ2=81.928, df = 2, p<0.05). During both seasons, the highest bird diversity was observed in farmland (H’=3.65), followed by plantation forest (H’=3.52). The lowest and highest distributions were observed in natural forests (J=0.77) and plantation forests (J=0.89), respectively. Variations in the number of bird species were observed among the three habitats. Species similarity was highest between natural forests and plantation forests during both the dry and wet seasons. There was a statistically significant difference in habitat use of bird species among the three habitat types either when seasons were considered separately (dry season: χ2 = 22.825, df = 6, P<0.05; wet season: χ2 = 22.186, df = 6, P<0.05) or when combined (χ2 = 26.658, df = 6, P<0.05). The Menagesha Suba State forest is rich in endemic bird species to Ethiopia and shared with Eritrea, and more than 15% of bird species distributions are locally rare. There is a need for a detailed study of long duration on the diversity and other ecological aspects of forest bird species should be conducted to get exhaustive information.