Rapid evolution of thermal tolerance and phenotypic plasticity in
variable environments
Abstract
Global warming is associated with an increase in sea surface temperature
and its variability. The consequences of evolving in variable,
fluctuating environments are explored by a large body of theory: when
populations evolve in fluctuating environments the frequency of
fluctuations determines the shapes of tolerance curves (indicative of
habitats that organisms can inhabit) and trait reaction norms (the
phenotypes that organisms display across these environments). Despite
this well-established theoretical backbone, predicting how trait and
tolerance curves will evolve in organisms at the foundation of marine
ecosystems remains a challenge. Here, we used a globally distributed
phytoplankton, Thalassiosira pseudonana, and show that fluctuations in
temperature on scales of 3-4 generations rapidly selected for
populations with enhanced trait plasticity and elevated thermal
tolerance. Fluctuations spanning 30-40 generations selected for the
formation of two stable, genetically and physiologically distinct
populations, one also evolving high trait plasticity and enhanced
thermal tolerance, and the other, akin to samples evolved under constant
warming, with lower trait plasticity and a smaller increase in thermal
tolerance.