Climate change and resistant varieties mediate a critical transition in
the coffee rust disease
Abstract
Critical transitions, sudden responses to slow changes in environmental
drivers, are inherent in many dynamic processes, prompting a search for
early warning signals. We apply this framework to understanding the
coffee rust disease, which experienced an unprecedented outbreak in
Mesoamerica in 2012-2013, likely a critical transition. Based on monthly
infection data from 128 study quadrats in a 45-ha plot in southern
Mexico from 2014 to 2020, we find that the persistent seasonal epidemic
following the initial outbreak collapses in an evident subsequent
critical transition. Characteristic signals of “critical slowing down”
precede this collapse and are correlated with reduced rainfall, as
expected from climate change, and planting of rust-resistant varieties,
an ongoing management intervention. Recoveries from catastrophes may
themselves be experienced as a critical transition and managers should
consider the larger dynamical landscape for the possibility of
subsequent transitions. Early warning signals could therefore be useful
when evaluating mitigation effectiveness.