Changes in the climate suitability and growth rates of trees in eastern
North America
Abstract
According to the “fitness-suitability” hypothesis, ongoing changes in
climate are expected to affect species’ fitness and habitat suitability.
In trees, differences in fitness may manifest as changes in growth
rates, which alters carbon uptake. Using tree-ring data, we calculated
annual growth rates for 15,866 trees representing 37 species from 558
populations throughout eastern North America. We used species
distribution models to estimate each population’s climatic suitability
from 1900-2010. Growth rates and relative climatic suitabilities were
analyzed using linear mixed-effects models. There were no significant
relationships between growth rates and climate suitability across space
or time. However, growth rates have decreased significantly through time
independent of changes in climate suitability, especially in
gymnosperms. These results suggest that unidentified factors may slow
tree growth and outweigh potential benefits of climate change and
increasing [CO2]. Consequently, we should not count on growth of
eastern North American trees to help offset anthropogenic carbon
emissions.