Abstract
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are extreme hydrological events that have
strong impacts on the Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB), through both
snow accumulation and surface melt due to heating and rain. To estimate
their impacts on future SMB, we study Antarctic ARs in an ensemble of
21st century simulations. While the number of detected ARs increases
continuously when using a constant detection threshold based on
historical moisture fluxes, it remains stable with an adaptive threshold
evolving with the rising background moisture. However, ARs penetrate
further into Antarctica following a wave number 3 pattern. In addition,
the intensity of Antarctic ARs, measured by moisture fluxes, is
simulated to increase following the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. The
opposing SMB impacts become larger, with both increasing snowfall, and
coastal surface melt and rainfall. Yet, their overall influence on the
SMB is dominated by increased snow accumulation.