Unreliability Tracing of Power Systems with Reservoir Hydropower Based
on a Temporal Recursive Model
Abstract
Power system unreliability tracing model allocates the system’s
reliability index to individual components, identifying potential
weaknesses. This study expands its scope by considering the impact of
storage resources. Unreliable factors leading to load shedding are
categorized into two groups: objective factors inherent to the component
and insufficient storage resources. The latter requires a retrospective
analysis of other components that caused unreliability previously. When
allocating responsibility for load shedding at a certain time, it begins
by allocating it among components based on differences between fixed
expected output and actual supply. Expected output insufficiency is
considered the unreliable factor. This insufficiency due to insufficient
storage resources is then decomposed into segments, each caused by
excessive output in earlier instances of the same component. The
expected output excess is attributed to the expected output
insufficiency of other components in previous times, for which
responsibility has been allocated to each component. Consequently, the
expected output insufficiency at a particular time can be traced back
based on a temporal recursive model, with the load shedding further
allocated to components before that time. Case studies based on several
systems demonstrate that the proposed model’s allocation results are
reasonable and more accurate than the traditional model.