Long-term source-sink dynamics of an endangered predator and the
invasion of a non-native prey
Abstract
Empirical investigations of source-sink dynamics are needed to relate
metapopulation theory to spatially-structured, temporally varying
population dynamics in the real world. The difficulty of acquiring the
data needed to estimate vital rates has often constrained analyses of
source-sink dynamics to static or simulated systems. We used 26 years of
data on reproduction, movement, and survival to estimate annual
source-sink dynamics across the entire range of the endangered Everglade
snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis plumbeus) during the invasion of a
novel prey species. Populations underwent striking changes in
source-sink dynamics over time, varying with time since invasion. Both
source and sink populations depended on immigration to offset high
emigration rates. Source populations are often prioritized for
conservation, but in a metapopulation composed largely of sinks, or
sources with high emigration and immigration, an emphasis on maintaining
connectivity or expanding available breeding habitat may be more
important.