Evaluation of Mortality Data Sources Compared to the National Death
Index in the Healthcare Integrated Research Database
Abstract
Purpose Ascertainment of mortality is critical to epidemiologic
studies. Secondary collected database studies face challenges given the
need to record mortality data in health claims or electronic medical
records. The National Death Index (NDI) is the gold standard for
mortality data in the U.S. Methods This study is a secondary
analysis of an advanced cancer cohort in the U.S. between January 2010
and December 2018, with an established NDI linkage. Mortality data
sources, inpatient discharge, disenrollment, death master file (DMF),
Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), Utilization management
data (U.M.), and online obituary data were compared to NDI. We
calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV),
negative predictive value (NPV), and 95% confidence intervals (95%
CI). Per each source, death identified 60 days before and 30 days after
NDI death was deemed a match. Results Among 40,692 patients,
25,761 (63.3%) had a death date using NDI; the composite algorithm had
a sensitivity of 88.9% (95% CI= 88.5%, 89.3%), specificity was
89.1% (95% CI= 88.6%, 89.6%). At the same time, PPV was 93.4% (95%
CI= 93.1%, 93.7%), NPV was 82.3% (95% CI= 81.7%, 82.9%), and when
comparing each individual source, each had a high PPV but limited
sensitivity. Conclusion The composite algorithm was demonstrated
to be a sensitive and precise measure of mortality in advanced cancer
patients in the U.S. from 2010 to 2018, while individual database
sources were accurate but had limited sensitivity compared to the NDI.