Modeling Spatial Distribution of Snow Water Equivalent using Transfer
Learning across Mountainous Basins
Abstract
Accurately estimating snow water equivalent (SWE) is crucial for
understanding the impacts of climate change, urbanization, and
population growth on water resources. High operational costs of lidar
observations limit the frequency and coverage of SWE estimates at high
spatial resolutions, leading to significant data gaps. We address this
challenge with a transfer learning framework that leverages abundant SWE
data from California to enhance predictions in Colorado, where data are
scarce. From 2016 to 2019, the disparity in SWE data collection between
these states was stark: 94 snowpack maps were recorded in California’s
Sierra Nevada versus only 12 in Colorado’s Rocky Mountains. We
hypothesized that geographic predictors (e.g., elevation and snowfall)
would exhibit similar effects on SWE across these landscapes. By
conducting an explanatory factor analysis, we validated this hypothesis
and refined our transfer learning model, which incorporated data from
California to predict SWE in Colorado. When compared with using data
from Colorado alone, transfer learning improved the mean R2 value from
0.43 to 0.56, indicating a significant enhancement of over 30% in
predictive accuracy. Such advancements underscore the potential of our
framework to mitigate lidar data limitations, offering a valuable tool
for water resource management amidst changing environmental conditions.