Modeling spatiotemporal of land use land cover change from 1998 to 2020
around the riverine area of Pendjari reserve in Benin
Abstract
Land use land cover change is the main factor which contributed to
biodiversity loss, and has affected negatively human wellbeing.
Understanding this phenomenon is important in Riverine area of Pendjari
Reserve which has been affected by anthropic disturbance for century
years, and is, nowadays, one of the most significantly biodiversity
hotspots in the West Africa. This study aims to (i) assess the trends of
land use land cover change from 1998 to 2020; (ii) predict the future of
land use land cover change for 2035 and 2050. Landsat images were used
to determine LULC dynamics for the years 1998, 2007, 2013 and 2020 using
Random Forest classification in ArcGIS software while the predicted LULC
of 2035 and 2050 were simulated using Terset 18.21. The results
indicated significant changes in LULC patterns. The wooded savannah
decreased by 4.7 %, 8 % and 11.5 % respectively during 1998-2007,
2007-2013 and 2013-2020. While shrub savannah increased by 10.5% and
3.88 % respectively 1998-2007 and 2007-2013 before declined by 1.17%.
However, the cropland from 1998-2007 decreased by 6.66 %, before
increased by 4.33% and 11.1% respectively from 2007-2013 and
2013-2020. Fallow land increased by 0.77 %, 0.83 % respectively
1998-2007 and 2013-2020, before decreasing by 0.7 % in 2007-2013.
Settlement area increased from 1998-2020. The prediction results
confirmed small decreased of wooded savannah and increased shrub
savannah, cropland and fallow. Moreover, results of 2035 predicted
settlement decreased in future and suggest African partnership will
continuous for better land management of this study area. For year 2050,
the wooded savannah will increase by 17506.7 Ha with 583.557 Ha/year
-1 rate of change.