Unraveling the dynamic of rubber phenology in Hainan Island, China:
insights from multi-source remote sensing and climate data
Abstract
Investigating the phenology of rubber trees (Hevea brasiliensis), a
widely cultivated crop in tropical regions exhibiting distinct
phenological patterns, is crucial for optimizing plantation management,
enhancing production efficiency, and understanding the implications of
global climatic change on tropical vegetation dynamics. The purpose of
this study is to explores the spatiotemporal variation characteristics
and driving factors of rubber phenology over the past two decades on
Hainan Island, China’s second-largest rubber plantation base. We applied
by integrating multi-source remote sensing imagery processed through the
Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud platform with various analytical methods
including the seasonal amplitude method, Savitzky-Golay (S-G) filtering
technique, partial correlation analysis, Sen’s slope, and Mann-Kendal
test. The results showed that rubber phenology exhibited significant
interannual trends and spatial heterogeneity. Specifically, the start of
the growing season (SOS) mainly occurred from early to late March (day
of year, DOY 60-81), with a trend of advancing by 1.1 days per decade.
The end of the growing season (EOS) mostly occurred from late January to
early February (DOY 392-406 counted from the previous year), delaying by
3.7 days per decade. The length of the growing season (LOS) lasted 10 to
11 months. Precipitation and topography significantly influenced rubber
phenology, with SOS advancing as slope increased and elevation
decreased, and increased precipitation accelerating both SOS and EOS at
a rate of 1.00 day per 100 mm. Pre-seasonal climatic factors,
particularly temperature in February and precipitation in February and
March for SOS, and precipitation in January and temperature in February
for EOS, were closely related to phenological changes. These findings
elucidate the spatiotemporal patterns and underlying drivers of rubber
tree phenological changes, offering valuable insights for optimizing
rubber plantation management and informing tropical vegetation
conservation efforts. Future research should prioritize investigating
the impact of global climate change on rubber phenology and developing
adaptive strategies to ensure sustainable development in tropical
regions.