Sea ice thickness (SIT) estimates derived from CryoSat-2 radar freeboard measurements are assimilated into the Met Office's global ocean–sea ice forecasting system, FOAM. We test the sensitivity of short-range forecasts to the snow depth, radar freeboard product and assumed radar penetration through the snowpack in the freeboard-to-thickness conversion. We find that modifying the snow depth has the biggest impact on the modelled SIT, changing it by up to 0.88 m (48%), compared to 0.65 m (33%) when modifying the assumed radar penetration through the snowpack and 0.55 m (30%) when modifying the freeboard product. We find a doubling in the thermodynamic volume change over the winter season when assimilating SIT data, with the largest changes seen in the congelation ice growth. Next, we determine that the method used to calculate the observation uncertainties of the assimilated data products can change the mean daily model SIT by up to 36%. Compared to measurements collected at upward-looking sonar moorings and during the Operation IceBridge campaign, we find an improvement in the SIT forecasts’ variability representation when assuming partial radar penetration through the snowpack and when improving the method used to calculate the CryoSat-2 observation uncertainties. This paper highlights a concern for future SIT data assimilation and forecasting, with the chosen parameterisation of the freeboard-to-thickness conversion having a substantial impact on model results.
