Habitat dynamics of flagship species for conservation prioritization in
Southern Europe
Abstract
Biodiversity loss is accelerating due to human actions and
decision-making for conservation needs to be streamlined. The ex-situ
biodiversity modelling and monitoring based on satellite time series
data could be an affordable and cost-efficient tool for improving the
prioritization of conservation areas. Here, we provide a set of dynamic
indicators for conservation prioritization by applying a habitat
suitability trend analysis of six flagship species over 19 years (2001
– 2019) derived from ecological niche models (MaxEnt) and time series
of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in
Andalucía (Spain, Southern Europe). Based on the annual HSI models of
all species and using the spatial conservation prioritization tool
Marxan, we derived inter-annual dynamic indicators for conservation
prioritization as cost-effectiveness, adequacy, stability and
conservation legacy. Overall, models showed a high performance (AUCmean
= 0.92±0.07, Boyce index = 0.84±0.15 and Null models AUCmean= 0.63 ±
0.08), predicting 31% of negative trends and only 19% of positive
trends for the habitat availability across all species, showing a
generalized habitat regression. The most contributing predictors were
related to vegetation composition and structure (land cover), climate
(land surface temperature), and energy balance (evapotranspiration),
matching with the species ecology. Marxan identified interannual
dynamics for the priority areas, both outside and inside protected
areas. Our results suggested that (1) additional areas than those
currently protected need to be prioritized, and (2) areas recently
degraded could be restored considering the past importance for the
conservation of the target species. In summary, this model-based system
supported by a well-established conservation planning software provides
a new set of dynamic priority-area indicators informing about the
adequacy and effectiveness of conservation areas to meet long-term
conservation goals at a regional scale, and being applicable to other
species, ecosystems and socio-economic contexts across scales.