Construction and validation a Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific
Survival for patients with Ependymoma: An Analysis of the Surveillance,
Epidemiology, and End Results Database
Abstract
Background: Despite ongoing debate about reliable prognostic factors,
this study aimed to develop and validate a novel nomogram for predicting
cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients with ependymoma.
Methods: Clinical data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End
Results database spanning 2000 to 2018 were used for the analysis. Data
were randomly categorized into development and validation groups in a
7:3 ratio. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses and LASSO
regression were conducted to identify independent risk factors for CSS.
Predictive models were evaluated using calibration plots, concordance
index (C-index), and area under the receiver operating characteristic
curve (AUC). Additionally, decision curve analysis and clinical impact
curves were conducted. Results: The final sample comprised 2,340
patients. Multivariate analysis identified race, age, histological type,
surgery, and tumor site as independent predictors of CSS. A nomogram
incorporating these risk factors was developed to predict CSS in
patients with ependymomas. Calibration plots demonstrated a high level
of consistency between predicted and actual values. The C-index for the
training cohort was 0.746 (95% CI: 0.715–0.777), and for the
validation cohort, it was 0.743 (95% CI: 0.698–0.788). Additionally,
both AUC and decision curve analysis analyses indicated robust
performance and clinical significance benefits. Kaplan–Meier curves
further demonstrated the nomogram’s strong ability to predict patient
outcomes. Conclusions: Our nomogram has the potential to offer
significant value in predicting the outcomes of patients with
ependymomas aged > 1, 5, and 8 years. This predictive model
will assist doctors and patients in devising effective clinical
strategies.