Xiaonan Yin

and 3 more

The investigation of the resilience of cultivated land in primary grain producing regions, considering both natural and human characteristics, holds significant theoretical and practical importance. We aim to elucidate the feedback mechanism of regional cultivated land systems in response to various pressures and coercions, and design both a theoretical evaluation system and an econometric evaluation model of cultivated land resilience in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River in China. It analyses the spatial and temporal development of cultivated land resilience from 2001 to 2020. Additionally, we use a geographic detector to uncover the influencing mechanism of multi-dimensional factors. The research findings indicate that the cultivated land resilience index in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River has experienced a general increase of 7.2%. However, it exhibits a cyclical evolution of ”decline-recovery” in the time sequence. Additionally, the spatial pattern of cultivated land resilience is evident, with high values observed in the area extending from the middle to the surrounding areas. Furthermore, there is a positive spatial correlation between cultivated land resilience and the level of agglomeration, with a gradual increase in the agglomeration level. The spatial heterogeneity of cultivated land resilience is influenced by the interplay of various factors, resulting in a two-factor enhancement that is partially non-linear. The intensity of each factor’s role varies across different time periods, and its significance gradually transitions from ecological pressure to scale structure, ultimately leading to food security. It is determined that the utilisation of cultivated land resources at the regional scale exhibits significant environmental intricacy, temporal fluctuations, and geographical heterogeneity. Consequently, the ensuing ambiguity in food security emerges as a crucial matter that warrants consideration at the national strategic level. The examination of cultivated land resilience offers a more comprehensive framework for identifying and diagnosing the primary deficiencies within the cultivated land system at the regional level. This, in turn, improves the region’s capacity to effectively address environmental changes and mitigate development risks. Additionally, it facilitates the establishment of an optimal spatial allocation of cultivated land resources at the regional level, promoting sustainable and robust development of the cultivated land system.