MaxEnt Modelling for Predicting Suitable Habitats of Himalayan May Apple
(Podophyllum hexandrum Royle) in Nepal ”
Abstract
Podophyllum hexandrum Royle, commonly known as Himalayan May apple is a
perennial herb with high medicinal significance. In Nepal, its survival
is threatened by extensive harvesting for trade. Therefore, the plant
has been listed in CITES appendix II. To prioritize any threatened
species for conservation, first the suitable regions of its occurrence
must be known. However, information on the suitable habitats of P.
hexandrum is less in Nepal. Therefore, present study dealt with the
modelling of suitable habitats of P. hexandrum under current and future
climate change scenario using MaxEnt probabilistic modelling. Nine
bioclimatic and two topographic variables with 36 occurrences of P.
hexandrum were used in the model. The model output revealed about 24.36
% of total area of Nepal is suitable for the occurrence of P. hexandrum
at present. Of the total current suitable area, 2.31% constitute high,
6.14 % mid and 15.91% constitute low probability regions. The highest
potential distribution was predicted in the eastern and central
highlands of Nepal, whereas; western region has low suitability under
current and future climatic scenario. Jackknife test identified
elevation and precipitation seasonality (Bio 15) as most important
environmental factors affecting the spatial distribution. In addition,
the future suitability projection revealed that the suitable range of
distribution would decline in 2050 and 2070 respectively under SSP-245
and SSP-585. Overall, this study identified the potential habitats for
P. hexandrum under the current and future climatic scenario in Nepal and
generated a baseline data for making framework for the conservation
planning, monitoring and habitat management of target species.