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MaxEnt Modelling for Predicting Suitable Habitats of Himalayan May Apple (Podophyllum hexandrum Royle) in Nepal ”
  • Neelam Pandey,
  • Basu Dev Poudel
Neelam Pandey
Tribhuvan University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Basu Dev Poudel
Environmental services Nepal
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Abstract

Podophyllum hexandrum Royle, commonly known as Himalayan May apple is a perennial herb with high medicinal significance. In Nepal, its survival is threatened by extensive harvesting for trade. Therefore, the plant has been listed in CITES appendix II. To prioritize any threatened species for conservation, first the suitable regions of its occurrence must be known. However, information on the suitable habitats of P. hexandrum is less in Nepal. Therefore, present study dealt with the modelling of suitable habitats of P. hexandrum under current and future climate change scenario using MaxEnt probabilistic modelling. Nine bioclimatic and two topographic variables with 36 occurrences of P. hexandrum were used in the model. The model output revealed about 24.36 % of total area of Nepal is suitable for the occurrence of P. hexandrum at present. Of the total current suitable area, 2.31% constitute high, 6.14 % mid and 15.91% constitute low probability regions. The highest potential distribution was predicted in the eastern and central highlands of Nepal, whereas; western region has low suitability under current and future climatic scenario. Jackknife test identified elevation and precipitation seasonality (Bio 15) as most important environmental factors affecting the spatial distribution. In addition, the future suitability projection revealed that the suitable range of distribution would decline in 2050 and 2070 respectively under SSP-245 and SSP-585. Overall, this study identified the potential habitats for P. hexandrum under the current and future climatic scenario in Nepal and generated a baseline data for making framework for the conservation planning, monitoring and habitat management of target species.