Abstract
Tipping elements are critical components of the Earth system. These are
small perturbations that can cause large, potentially cascading, and
irreversible impacts on the climate system, including the biosphere and
human societies. However, our current knowledge of the scale and
feedbacks of Earth system components that might exhibit tipping behavior
is still limited. Advancing our understanding requires large ensembles
of Earth System Model (ESM) simulations. In the Tipping Point Model
Intercomparison Project (TIPMIP), a “ramp up – stabilization – ramp
down” scenario is suggested. This approach involves adapting either
CO2 emissions or CO2 concentrations to
drive the global mean surface temperature (GMST) to increase towards a
certain prescribed global warming level (GWL), keeping it stable at the
GWL for a certain period, and then allowing the temperature to decrease
again.