Cycles in hydrologic intensification and de-intensification create
instabilities in spring nitrate-N export C-Q behavior in northern
temperate forests
Abstract
Northern temperate forests are experiencing changes from climate and
acidification recovery that influence catchment nitrate-nitrogen (N)
flushing behavior. N flushing behavior is characterized by metrics such
as: (a) N flushing time—the exponential decrease in stream N
concentration during the peak snowmelt episode; and (b) N concentration
(C) and discharge (Q) hysteresis metrics—flushing index (FI) and
hysteresis index (HI)—representing the slope, direction and amplitude
of the C-Q loop. We hypothesize that climate-driven hydrologic
intensification results in longer N flushing times, lower FI (less
flushing to more diluting), and lower HI (less proximal to more distal N
sources). We tested this hypothesis using 38 years of data from two
headwater catchments. Hydrologic intensification was estimated by
changes in the ratio of potential evapotranspiration to precipitation
and the ratio of actual evapotranspiration to precipitation. From 1982
to 2005, a period of hydrologic intensification and a decline in
atmospheric acidic deposition was associated with a decrease in C and Q,
leading to stable C-Q patterns that reflected flushing (positive FI) of
proximal N sources (positive HI). However, from 2006 to 2019, a period
of hydrologic de-intensification coupled with an ongoing decline in
atmospheric acidic deposition was associated with a continued decrease
in C but an increase in Q, leading to unstable C-Q patterns that
reflected diluting (negative FI) of distal N sources (negative HI). C-Q
instability was buffered in the catchment with a large wetland,
indicating the potential of wetlands to buffer against changing climate
conditions.