Intersecting memories of immunity and climate: Potential multiyear
impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on infectious disease spread
Abstract
Climate and infectious diseases each present critical challenges on a
warming planet, as does the influence of climate on disease. Both are
governed by nonlinear feedbacks, which drive multi-annual cycles in
disease outbreaks and weather patterns. Although climate and weather can
influence infectious disease transmission and have spawned rich
literatures, the interaction between the independent feedbacks of these
two systems remains less explored. Here, we demonstrate the potential
for long-lasting impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events
on disease dynamics using two approaches: interannual perturbations of a
generic SIRS model to represent ENSO forcing, and detailed analysis of
realistic specific humidity data on an SIRS model with endemic
coronavirus (HCoV-HKU1) parameters. Our findings reveal the importance
of considering nonlinear feedbacks in susceptible population dynamics
for predicting and managing disease risks associated with ENSO-related
weather variations.