Abstract
11institutetext:
Knowledge-based Systems and Document Processing Research Group
Faculty of Computer Science
Otto-von-Guericke-University Magdeburg
11email:
[email protected]
Correlative species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to
project the responses of biodiversity to global changes. The climatic
niche of a species is calibrated under current climate conditions and
then projected in space and/or time, making model extrapolation an
important concern. This issue is particularly relevant when considering
species that live at the same time at the boundaries of the current
Earth’s climate and the edges of their physiological tolerance, such as
desert-adapted species. To tackle these problems, alternative modelling
approaches (e.g., hybrid SDMs) have been proposed. These models should
explicitly consider the species’ physiological thermal tolerance,
producing outputs that are closer to the species’ ecology. Here,
considering mammals occurring in the Arabian Peninsula, we compared
correlative SDMs with different extrapolation options (no-extrapolation,
clamping, fade by clamping, full extrapolation) and hybrid SDMs
incorporating the thermal tolerance of each species. We projected all
models under current and future climate scenarios and measured the
differences between the models’ outcomes. We found that different
extrapolation options and hybrid SDMs produced important differences at
least in future projections, especially for species physiologically
adapted to the extreme climate conditions of the desert. Correlative
SDMs blocking any extrapolations beyond the current climate conditions
led to limited suitability, while SDMs allowing for extrapolations were
extremely more liberal in their projections. Hybrid SDMs produced
intermediate results, with up to 97% of the species losing large parts
of their suitable ranges under future climate scenarios. Our findings
highlight that hybrid SDMs provide a more reasonable projection of the
future distribution of species that live at the edge of the current
climate, given the inability of purely correlative models to track their
thermal tolerances under extrapolation. For this reason, hybrid SDMs
hold the premises for a better understanding of the impact of global
changes on desert-adapted species.