Trends and Shifts in Mean Annual Inflow Time Series of Hydropower Plants
in Brazil
Abstract
Previous hydrological trends and shifts studies carried out in Brazil
used a set of stream flow records that did not covered the important
critical hydrological period for Brazil-ian hydropower production
occurred between 2015 and 2022. This extreme dry period has raised many
substantial concerns about if it could be attributed to cyclical climate
variabilities or to human induced variations. In this paper, we provide
an update of trends or shifts detection studies in long-term mean annual
flow (LTMAF) using a set of 52 naturalized historical time series of
monthly inflows until 2022 for Brazilian hydropower plants. Another
novelty of this work is the attempt to avoid errors in approximating
hydrographic reconstructions of natural inflows, considering time series
of inflows from hydroelectric plants located in areas with unregulated
headwaters. This paper also stands out from the others by avoiding
inflow data obtained using time series extensions techniques of past
periods with scarcity of fluviometric records in the hydrographic
region. Detection tests for assessing statistical significance of linear
trends and of gradual/abrupt shifts were applied for each of the 52
selected time series. Trends and/or shifts were detected in 37 series.
The results were compared with other studies that used all naturalized
time series from the ONS archive.