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Lemming and vole cycles: a new intrinsic model
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  • Elizabeth Levay,
  • Helen Nasser,
  • Matt Zelko,
  • Jim Penman,
  • Terrance Johns
Elizabeth Levay
La Trobe University
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Helen Nasser
La Trobe University
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Matt Zelko
Epigenes Australia
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Jim Penman
Epigenes Australia
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Terrance Johns
La Trobe University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

It is 100 years since the first paper described the multiannual cycles in Arctic rodents and lagomorphs. The mechanisms driving population cycles in animals like lemmings and voles are complex, often attributed to extrinsic factors, such as food availability and quality, pathogens, parasites and/or predators. While extrinsic factors provide insights into population cycles, none fully explain the phenomenon. We propose an underlying innate, intrinsic mechanism, based on epigenetic regulation, that drives population cycles under harsh arctic conditions. We propose that epigenetically driven phenotypic changes associated with sexual development, growth, and behaviour accumulate over time in offspring, eventually producing a phase change from rising population density to eventual population collapse. Under this hypothesis, and unlike previous hypotheses, extrinsic factors would modify population cycles but would not be primary drivers. The interaction between our intrinsic cycle and extrinsic factors explains established phenomena like delayed-density dependence, whereby population growth is controlled by time-dependent negative feedback. We advocate for integrating a century of field research with the latest epigenetic analysis to better understand the drivers of population cycles.
13 Sep 2024Submitted to Ecology and Evolution
13 Sep 2024Submission Checks Completed
13 Sep 2024Assigned to Editor
14 Sep 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
18 Sep 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
27 Sep 2024Editorial Decision: Accept