Abstract

Many large dams are located near urban areas, where their failure could result in devastating flash floods, releasing vast amounts of water with little warning and without rainfall as a precursor. Emergency Action Plans (EAPs) are critical documents that guide residents and local authorities in responding effectively to such emergencies. However, many dams near urban centers lack these essential plans. In this study, we present a novel approach for developing equitable EAPs for large dams near cities in Iran, focusing on the Shahrchai Dam (with a capacity of 220 million m³) near Urmia, a metropolitan city in northwest Iran. Using dam failure modeling through HEC-RAS and ArcGIS, we identified key flood risk metrics, including a flooded area of 12 km², maximum water depth of 25 meters, peak water velocity of 15 m/s, and an estimated evacuation window of 140-170 minutes. The potential impact includes 150,000 affected residents, endangered buildings such as nine hospitals, four hotels, multiple municipal offices, 54 schools, five universities, and ten kindergartens. We also identified safe shelters and proposed high-level EAPs tailored for commercial, educational, and official buildings, along with designated escape routes for the affected areas. Furthermore, we addressed equity considerations in developing EAPs, highlighting the need for inclusive planning that protects vulnerable populations. This study underscores the critical necessity of developing robust EAPs for cities like Urmia, which are exposed to the risks posed by nearby large dams. The highlevel framework we propose offers valuable insights for policymakers and institutions such as Iran's Red Crescent Society, the Ministry of Energy, and local authorities. By prioritizing the implementation of EAPs for Shahrchai Dam, these stakeholders can take immediate action to safeguard thousands of lives.