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Jie Cao

and 9 more

Solar flares are major manifestations of solar activity, characterized by intense radiation and particle emissions that affect the entire solar system. High-accurate prediction of solar flare events for solar cycle 25 is crucial for understanding and mitigating these effects. In this work, we used soft X-ray flux from the GOES satellites and the chromospheric flare index to predict solar flare activity for solar cycle 25. Our results show that: (1) There is a temporal and intensity asymmetry between the northern and southern hemispheres, with the southern hemisphere showing greater flare activity during solar cycle 25. (2) Flare activity exhibits Gnevyshev peaks, and the double-peak structures are more prominent than other atmospheric layers. The Gnevyshev peaks may be related to the different timescales of the solar flare responses to the geomagnetic field and the interplanetary magnetic field. (3) Chromospheric flare activity lags behind photospheric sunspot activity. This phase lag phenomenon may be related to the magnetic energy storage in the corona, indicating that changes in sunspot activity occur before flare activity. (4) The activity level of solar cycle 25 will be more pronounced than that of solar cycle 24. This phenomenon may be related to the modulation effect of the Gleissberg cycle, which has been validated by geomagnetic precursor indices. Our results provide valuable insights into the temporal and spatial distribution of solar flare activity during solar cycle 25.