Abstract
Obtaining temporal biodiversity trends in the light of rapid global
change is crucial to estimating future impacts – yet the lack of
temporally replicated monitoring data limits our ability. Here, we
identify imprints of temporal change in static data and utilize them to
predict temporal biodiversity trends without requiring a time-series. We
used data from temporally replicated breeding bird atlases from four
regions worldwide and measured the change in each bird species by log
ratio of occupancy change (measure of loss or gain) and by temporal
Jaccard index (measure of turnover of sites). We calculated predictors
from the configuration of each species’ spatial distribution, traits,
diversity metrics, and from study region characteristics and used
machine-learning to link these to the temporal change. Static predictors
failed to predict the log ratio of occupancy change, but they did
predict the magnitude of site turnover. Variables that characterize the
spatial configuration of the species range were sufficient to predict
the change, while all others contributed only marginally. Here, we show
that static data, especially the details of the spatial configuration of
species ranges, provide signals of the processes of temporal change.
This holds promise for estimating biodiversity change in situations
without temporal data.