Robust Foreshock Rate Estimates in Southern California Considering
Sensitivity to Mainshock Selection, Earthquake Catalog and Foreshock
Definition
Abstract
Estimates of the percentage of moderate to large crustal earthquakes
(mainshocks) that have foreshocks (the foreshock rate) vary widely:
recent estimates in Southern California using an enhanced catalog range
between 19 and 72%. Enhanced catalogs seem to reveal more foreshocks,
possibly providing new constraints on nucleation mechanisms, but
precise, commonly-accepted foreshock definitions are lacking. To
investigate the observed range we quantify the sensitivity of foreshock
rates to mainshock selection method, catalog (standard and enhanced),
foreshock definition, geographical restriction and magnitude cut-offs.
We compare two foreshock definitions: type A - any earthquakes above a
magnitude threshold in a space-time window; and type B - an earthquake
count in a space-time window that exceeds the 99th percentile of a
statistical representation of past seismicity rates (using three
distributions: Poisson, Gamma and Empirical). Foreshock rate estimates
are increased by (in order of influence): Poisson distribution, type A
definition, fixed mainshock selection, and restricting to mainshocks
with minimum background rates or spatial completeness magnitudes. Rates
are lowered by: magnitude-dependent mainshock selection, Gamma and
Empirical distributions, and applying a magnitude cut-off. A large
increase in foreshock rate between the standard and enhanced catalog is
only observed when using Poisson distributed background rates for type B
foreshocks. A lower magnitude of completeness may thus not lead to
significantly more mainshocks with detected foreshocks. Our preferred
method, using a more robust mainshock selection and quality-controlled
data, estimates ~25% of M4+ “mainshocks” in Southern
California have foreshocks.