Pedology and plant provenance can improve predictions of species
distributions of the Australian native flora: a calibrated and validated
modelling exercise on 5,033 species
Abstract
Species distribution models (SDMs) are valuable tools for assessing
species’ responses to environmental factors and identifying areas
suitable for their survival. The careful selection of input variables is
critical, as their interactions, and correlations with other
environmental factors can affect model performance. This study evaluates
the influence of climate and soil variables on SDMs’ performance for
5,033 Australian plant species, selected to represent the largest
phylogenetic diversity of native terrestrial vascular flora. Using an
ensemble of correlative models, we assessed the predictive performance
of climate and soil variables, individually and in combination, across
four distinct ecoregions: Desert (n = 640 species), Mediterranean (n =
1,246), Temperate (n = 1,936), and Tropical (n = 1,211). Our results
demonstrate that on a continental scale, climate variables have a
greater influence on plant distributions than soil variables. Although
incorporating soil and climate variables enhanced model performance in
some ecoregions, our results indicate that relying solely on small-scale
variables such as soil may increase the likelihood of overfitting. In
soil-only models, Clay content (CLY), Nitrogen Total Organic (NTO), and
Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) were important across modelled species, with
their relevance varying by ecoregion. Our findings have significant
implications for understanding the interplay between climate, soil, and
plant distribution within diverse ecoregions. By highlighting the
crucial role of climate in large-scale models, this study serves as a
foundation for developing more accurate predictions of plant
distributions, ultimately improving model accuracy for biodiversity
assessments.