The role of convectively coupled tropical waves in drier and wetter
seasons in northern Australia
Abstract
Convectively coupled tropical waves (CCTWs) have been shown to
significantly modulate rainfall in northern Australia during the Austral
summer (December-February; DJF). However, the impact of these waves
under varying summer conditions remains unclear. To investigate the
influences of these waves in varying background conditions, we divide
the period from 1981 to 2020 into years of dry and wet DJF based on the
frequency of heavy rain in each season (mean ± 0.5SD). Stronger
monsoons, more evaporation, and less frequent El Niño are observed in
wetter DJF than in drier DJF. The results show that Madden-Julian
Oscillation (MJO) and Equatorial Rossby waves (ER) make a higher
contribution to the heavy rain days in drier DJF (i.e., 70% and 58% of
the days), compared to the wetter DJF. A higher probability increase in
heavy rain is observed during the drier DJF, with amplified (suppressed)
impact when wet-wet (wet-dry) wave pair occurs concurrently.