Flashy, decoupled, or declining? Single theories each fail to explain
the diversity of drought mortality signals in tree rings
Abstract
Increasing drought frequency and severity are driving global forest
dieback. Growth recorded in tree rings may predict drought ‘winners’ and
‘losers,’ but past studies of growth in drought-killed trees have
produced conflicting support for different theories about drought
mortality. We found that clusters of growth behaviors computed from the
rings of 2,934 drought-killed and drought-surviving trees from seven
species were not consistent with any single theory. Drought-killed
subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce trees exhibited “flashy”
growthhighly variable climate-growth responses over timecompared to
survivors. Drought-killed Scots pine and Norway ospruce trees showed
stable, climate-insensitive growth compared to survivors, suggesting
“decoupling” from climate. Finally, in red oak and subalpine fir,
disturbances like fire, logging, and biotic agents possibly influenced
declines in climate sensitivity in both drought-killed and surviving
trees. Our consolidated conceptual framework may be useful for
predicting future tree mortality, while providing enhanced ecological
and physiological understanding.